With the group stage being over, it is time to look at the next section and do what everyone does – get the crystal ball out and have a jolly old prediction. But before I let loose with the luck gun, how did my group stage predictions go when compared to some more reputable sources?
Soccernomics is the acclaimed book about country’s success, and future success, in football from an economist’s point of view. It uses home advantage, population, GDP per capita, and number of games played to create a formula that results in the goal differential in games. Using a European version of the original formula via Forbes we have their predictions.
The stat maestro Infostrada’s sensibly named ‘Euro Club Index‘ has a headache inducing methodology but does provide win percentages for most games (England to beat Italy 51% oooh), but bafflingly often has a 0% chance of draws.
ESPN have a suitably ESPN-y titled system called the Soccer Power Index “which represents the percentage of points a team would accumulate [in] a round-robin tournament”. Ludicrous? Yes, England are 3rd in Europe and 5th in the World currently.
FourFourTwo gave predictions in their lovely Euro 2012 supplement a few issues ago.
| Group Result | Soccernomics | FourFourTwo | ESPN Power Index | Euro Club Index | Post and In |
| Czech Republic | X | X | X | X | X |
| Greece | X | X | X | ✓ | X |
| Germany | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Portugal | X | X | X | X | X |
| Spain | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Italy | ✓ | ✓ | X | ✓ | ✓ |
| England | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| France | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | X | ✓ |
| Total | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Well that is… bland. Reassuring, but bland. I draw with the big dogs and beat the Power Index (What were you thinking with Croatia?) but we all goofed by predicting Russia and Poland in Group A. Infostrada does deserve some kudos for putting Greece through, but not for putting France out.
So now I’m an equal authority, here’s the scoop:
Predictions: Portugal (Ronaldo), Germany (because seriously Greece, stop now), Spain (France showed weakness against Sweden), and… England (we’re hard to beat y’know).
So there you have it. You probably thought it anyway but your advantage is not being embarrassed tonight when a rogue Czech goal sees the Portuguese out.
Trust in me and reap the rewards.
… Or not.
Post or Worse 